Web Mining Homework

A Recommender System Based On Web Data Mining for Personalized E-learning Jinhua Sun Department of Computer Science and Technology Xiamen University of Technology, XMUT Xiamen, China [email  protected] edu. cn Yanqi Xie Department of Computer Science and Technology Xiamen University of Technology, XMUT Xiamen, China [email  protected] edu. cn Abstract—In this paper, we introduce a web data mining olution to e-learning system to discover hidden patterns strategies from their learners and web data, describe a personalized recommender system that uses web mining techniques for recommending a student which (next) links to visit within an adaptable e-learning system, propose a new framework based on data mining technology for building a Web-page recommender system, and demonstrate how data mining technology can be effectively applied in an e-learning environment.Keywords–Data mining; web log,;e-learning; recommender readily interpreted by the analyst. A virtual e-learnin g framework is proposed, and how to enhance e-learning through web data mining is discussed. II. RELATED WORK I. INTRODUCTION With the rapid development of the World Wide Web, Web data mining has been extensively used in the past for analyzing huge collections of data, and is currently being applied to a variety of domains [1]. In the recent years, e-learning is becoming common practice and widespread in China.With the development of e-Learning, massive amounts of learning courses are available on the e-Learning system. When entering e-Learning System, the learners are unable to know where to begin to learn with various courses. Therefore, learners waste a lot of time on e-Learning system, but don’t get the effective learning result. It is very difficult and time consuming for educators to thoroughly track and assess all the activities performed by all learners.In order to overcome such a problem, the recommender learning system is required. Recommender systems are used on ma ny web sites to help users find interesting items [2], them predict a user's preference and suggest items by analyzing the past preference information of users, e-learning system is applied on the basis of the method. The user’s learning route is given and then provides the relevant learners useful messages through dynamically searching for the appropriate learning profile.This paper recommends learners the studying activities or learning profile through the technology of Web Mining with the purpose of helping they adopt a proper learning profile, we describe a framework that aims at solution to e-learning to discover the hidden insight of learning profile and web data. We demonstrate how data mining technology can be effectively applied in an e-learning environment. The framework we propose takes the results of the data mining process as input, and converts these results into actionable knowledge, by enriching them with information that can beThe route where the learner brow ses through the web pages will be noted down in Web log, carries on the technology of Web mining through Learning Profile and Web log, and analyzes from the materials related to association rule. It can be found the best learning profile from this information. These learning profiles combine with the Agent and put them on the learning website. Furthermore, the Agent recommends the function of learning profiles on learning website. Therefore, the learner will acquire a better learning profile.This chapter briefly illustrates the relevant contents including: e-Learning, Learning Profile, Agent, Web Data mining and Association rule. A. E-learning E-learning is the online delivery of information for purposes of education, training, or knowledge management. In the Information age skills and knowledge need to be continually updated and refreshed to keep up with today’s fastpaced study environment. E-learning is also growing as a delivery method for information in the education fiel d and is becoming a major learning activity. It is a Web-enabled system that makes knowledge accessible to those who need it.They can learn anytime and anywhere. E-learning can be useful both as an environment for facilitating learning at schools and as an environment for efficient and effective corporate training [3]. B. A Glance at Web Data Web usage mining performs mining on web data, particularly data stored in logs managed by the web servers. All accesses to a web site or a web-based application are tracked by the web server in a log containing chronologically ordered transactions indicating that a given URL was requested at a given time from a given machine using a given web client (i. e. browser).As shown in table 1, Web log contains the website â€Å"hit† information, such as visitor’s IP address, date and time, required pages, and status code indicating. The web log raw 978-1-4244-4994-1/09/$25. 00  ©2009 IEEE data is required to be converted into database f ormat, so that data mining algorithms can be applied to it. TABLE I. WEB LOG EXAMPLES Web logs 172. 158. 133. 121 – – [01/Nov/2006:23:46:00 -0800] â€Å"GET /work /assignmnts/midterm-solutions. pdf HTTP/1. 1†³206 29803 2006-12-14 00:23:56 209. 247. 40. 108 – 168. 144. 44. 231 GET /robots. txt – 200 600 119 125 HTTP/1. 0 www. a0598. com ia_archiver – – sefulness and certainty of a rule respectively [5]. Support, as usefulness of a rule, describes the proportion of transactions that contain both items A and B, and confidence, as validity of a rule, describes the proportion of transactions containing item B among the transactions containing item A. The association rules that satisfy user specified minimum support threshold (minSup) and minimum confidence threshold (minCon) are called strong association rules. D. Web Mining for E-learning Learning profile help learner to keep a record of their current knowledge and understanding of e-learn ing and elearning activities.Web mining is the application of data mining techniques to discover meaningful patterns, profiles, and trends from both the content and usage of Web sites. Web usage mining performs mining on web data, particularly data stored in logs managed by the web servers. The web log provides a raw trace of the learners’ navigation and activities on the site. In order to process these log entries and extract valuable patterns that could be used to enhance the learning system or help in the learning evaluation, a significant cleaning and transformation phase needs to take place so as to prepare the information for data mining algorithms [6].Web server log files of current common web servers contain insufficient data upon which to base thorough analysis. The data we use to construct our recommended system is based on association rules. E. Recommendation Using Association Rules One of the best-known examples of data mining in recommender systems is the discove ry of association rules, or item-to-item correlations [7]. Association rules have been used for many years in merchandising, both to analyze patterns of preference across products, and to recommend products to consumers based on other products they have selected.Recommendation using association rules is to predict preference for item k when the user preferred item i and j, by adding confidence of the association rules that have k in the result part and i or j in the condition part [4]. An association rule expresses the relationship that one product is often purchased along with other products. The number of possible association rules grows exponentially with the number of products in a rule, but constraints on confidence and support, combined with algorithms that build association rules with item sets of n items from rules with n-1 item sets, reduce the effective search space.Association rules can form a very compact representation of preference data that may improve efficiency of s torage as well as performance. In its simplest implementation, item-to-item correlation can be used to identify â€Å"matching items† for a single item, such as other clothing items that are commonly purchased with a pair of pants. More powerful systems match an entire set of items, such as those in a customer's shopping cart, to identify appropriate items to recommend. The web data is massive since the visitor’s every click in the website will leave several records in the tables.This also allows the website owner to track visitors’ behavior details and discover valuable patterns. C. Data Mining Techniques The term data mining refers to a broad spectrum of mathematical modeling techniques and software tools that are used to find patterns in data and user these to build models. In this context of recommender applications, the term data mining is used to describe the collection of analysis techniques used to infer recommendation rules or build recommendation model s from large data sets.Recommender systems that incorporate data mining techniques make their recommendations using knowledge learned from the actions and attributes of users. Classical data mining techniques include classification of users, finding associations between different product items or customer behavior, and clustering of users [4]. 1) Clustering Clustering techniques work by identifying groups of consumers who appear to have similar preferences. Once the clusters are created, averaging the opinions of the other consumers in her cluster can be used to make predictions for an individual.Some clustering techniques represent each user with partial participation in several clusters. The prediction is then an average across the clusters, weighted by degree of participation. 2) Classification Classifiers are general computational models for assigning a category to an input. The inputs may be vectors of features for the items being classified or data about relationships among th e items. The category is a domain-specific classification such as malignant/benign for tumor classification, approve/reject for credit requests, or intruder/authorized for security checks.One way to build a recommender system using a classifier is to use information about a product and a customer as the input, and to have the output category represent how strongly to recommend the product to the customer. 3) Association Rules Mining Association rule mining is to search for interesting relationships between items by finding items frequently appeared together in the transaction database. If item B appeared frequently when item A appeared, then an association rule is denoted as A B (if A, then B).The support and confidence are two measures of rule interestingness that reflect III. WEB DATA MINING FRAMEWORK FOR E-COMMERCE RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS A. A Visual Web Log Mining Architecture for Personalized E-learning Recommender System In this section, we present A Visual Web Log Mining Architec ture for e-learning recommender to enable personalized, named V-WebLogMiner, which relies on mining and on visualization of Web Services log data captured in elearning environment. The V-WebLogMiner is such a odel: with the mining technology and analysis of web logs or other records, the system could find learners’ interests and habits. While an old learner is visiting the website, the system will automatically match with the active session and recommend the most relevant hyperlinks what the learner interests. As shown in Figure1, V-WebLogMiner is a multi-layered architecture capable to deal with both Web learner profiles and traditional Web server logs as input data. It maintains three main components: data preprocessing module, Web mining module and recommendation module. ) Web Mining Module The Web mining module discovers valuable knowledge assets from the data repository containing learners' personal data by executes the mining algorithms, tracked data of learners' perfor mance and behavior, automatically identify each learner’s frequently sequential pages and store them to recommend database. When the learner visit the site next time, hyperlinks of those pages will be added so that the learner could directly link to his individual pages being remembered.The major component of Web mining module is Web data mining which acts as a conductor controlling and synchronizing every component within the module. The Web data mining module is also responsible for interfacing with the storage. The learning profile evaluation component provide profiling tool to collect personal data of learner and tracking tool to observe learners' actions including like and dislike information. For personalization applications, we apply rule discovery methods individually to every learner’s data.To discover rules that describe the behavior of individual learner, we use various data mining algorithms, such as Apriori [8] for association rules and CART (Classificatio n and Regression Tress) [9] for classification. 3) Recommendation Module The recommendation module is a recommendations engine; it is in charge of bulk loading data from course database, executing SQL commands against it and provides the list of recommended links to visualization tools.For the recommendation module, recommendations engine is responsible for the synchronizing process indexing and mapping, is a component for storing and searching recommend assets to be used in the learning process. The recommendation engine considers the active learners in conjunction with the recommended database to provide personalized recommendations, it directly related to the personalization on the website and the development of elearning system. The task of the recommendation engine is to determine the type of the learner online and compute recommendations based on the recent actions of that learner.The decision is based on the knowledge attained from the recommended database. The recommender en gine is activated each time that the learner visits a web page. First, if there are clusters in the recommended database, then the engine has to classify the current learner to determine the most likely cluster. We have to communicate with the engine to know the current number of pages visited and average knowledge of the learner. Then, we use the centroid minimum distance method [10] for assigning the learner to the cluster whose centroid is closest to that learner.Finally, we make the recommendation according to the rules in the cluster. So, only the rules of the corresponding cluster are used to match the current web page in order to obtain the current list of recommended links [11]. 4) The Visualization tools Visualization tools should be used to present implicit and useful knowledge from recommendations engine, Web services usage and composition. Data can be viewed at different levels Figure 1. A visual web mining architecture for Personalized E-learning Recommender System ) Da ta Preprocessing Module The data preprocessing module is set of programs used to prepare data for further processing. For instance: extraction, cleaning, transformation and loading. This module uses Web log files and learner profile files to feed the data repository. The data preparation component is used to parse and transform plain ASCII files produced by a Web server to a standard database format. This component is important to make the architecture independent from the Web server supplier. of granularity and abstractions as patrolled coordinate’s graphs [12, 13].This visual model easily shows the interrelationships and dependencies between different components. Interactively, the model can be used to discover sensitivities and to do approximate optimization, etc. B. The Procedure of the Data is Explained As show in figure 1, the beginning learner, that is to say the earliest one, will study in the e-Learning teaching platform. The course materials of Web studying system c ome from the course database. The data of learner’s learning profiles may be recorded in the learner profile files and Web log files.Then next step is to find out the best learning profile from the proceeded data of Web log through web mining to proceed with Association rule and others data mining algorithm. These learning profiles need to be classified—every field has relevant courses and better learning profiles. The recommender engine will offer the list of recommended links when learners study the courses. With the above information and learning profiles, when the future learners study in Web, recommender engine offers related link lists according to recommend database. However, these link lists may not be suitable for all learners.Therefore, after finishing recommendation every time, there are systems of assessing. The learner (n +1) evaluates the learning profiles that are recommended. Because the profiles analyzed by system may not be perfect, if there are adjus tments of evaluation would make the recommendation conform to learners’ asks more. These suggestions can help learners navigate better relevant resources and fast recommend the on-line materials, which help learners to select pertinent learning activities to improve their performance based on on-line behavior of successful learners.IV. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK There are some possible extensions to this work. Research for analyzing learners’ past studying pattern will enable to detect an appropriate. Furthermore, it will be an interesting research area to effectively judge session boundaries and to improve the efficiency of algorithms for web data mining. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial subsidy provided by the Xiamen Science and Technology Bureau under 3502Z20077023, 3502Z20077021 and YKJ07013R project. REFERENCES [1] [2] D. J. H and, H. Mannila, and P. Smyth.Principles of Data Mining. MIT Press, 2000. J. B. Schafer, J. A. Konstan, and J. Riedl. Recommender systems in ecommerce. In ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, pages 158166, 1999. Liaw, S. & Hung ,H. How Web Technology Can facilitate Learning. Information Systems Management, 2002. Choonho Kim and Juntae Kim, A Recommendation Algorithm Using Multi-Level Association Rules, Proceedings of the 2003 IEEE/WIC International Conference on Web Intelligence, p. 524, October 13-17, 2003. J. Han and M. Kamber, Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques, Morgan Kaurmann Publishers, 2000 Za ane, O.R. & Luo, J. Towards evaluating learners’ behaviour in a web-based distance learning environment. In Proc. of IEEE International Conference on Advanced Learning Technologies (ICALT01), p. 357– 360, 2001. Sarwar, B. , Karypis, G. , Konstan, J. A. , & Reidl, J. Item-based Collaborative Filtering Recommendation Algorithms. Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on World Wide Web, pp. 285 – 295, 2001. R. Agrawal et al. , Fast Discovery of Association Rul es, Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, AAAI Press, Menlo Park, Calif. , 1996, chap. 12. L. Breiman et al. Classification and Regression Trees, Wadsworth, Belmont, Calif. , 1984. MacQueen, J. B. Some Methods for classification and Analysis of Multivariate Observations. In Proceedings of of 5-th Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, 1967, pp. 281297. Cristobal Romero, Sebastian Ventura and Jose A. Delgado et al. , Personalized Links Recommendation Based on Data Mining in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems, Creating New Learning Experiences on a Global Scale,2007, pp. 292-306. Inselberg, A. Multidimensionl detective, In IEEE Symposium on Information Visualization, 1997, vol. 00, p. 00-110 . Ware, C. Information Visualization: Perception for Design,Morgan Kaufmann, New York, 2000. [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] Recommender systems have emerged as powerful tools for helping users find and evaluate items of interest. The research work presente d in this paper makes several contributions to the recommender systems for personalized e-learning. First of all, we propose a new framework based on web data mining technology for building a Web-page recommender system. Additionally, we demonstrate how web data mining technology can be effectively applied in an e-learning environment. [11] [12] [13]

Downfall of the American Dream Essay

As a child, one is told that life is just a dream. If one believes in his or her dreams and pursues the path to this goal than one shall achieve it and shall live a joyful, ‘happy’ life. However as one grows older and wiser, one learns that the reality is far more complicated and corrupted. One discovers that despite their perseverance and audacious efforts to attain his or her objectives, the American dream is just an illusion that cannot come true and cannot be attained. The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald is set in New York City and Long Island in the early 1920’s when America was viewed as the land of opportunity. Nevertheless, this novel explores the downfall of the American Dream and how it has an effect on people and the society. This is demonstrated by characters such as Myrtle Wilson who corrupts herself, her relationship and her life over an obsession with something that cannot be attained. Daisy Buchman who sacrifices herself and her happiness to ma intain her social status. Finally, Jay Gatsby, the protagonist of the novel exemplifies how the American dream can lead one to make immoral decisions. Through the use of these characters, F. Scott Fitzgerald in The Great Gatsby explores that no matter one’s gender, race or class the American dream does not discriminate; it is simply elusive and unachievable to all who seek to pursue it. Myrtle Wilson, often described in the novel as Tom’s mistress, remains a very flat character throughout the whole novel meaning that she doesn’t develop as a character and her morals do not change throughout the novel; however, she plays a huge role in Fitzgerald’s novel to outline the flaws in the American dream. Myrtle’s objective throughout her whole life as it was for many women of this era is to wed a rich successful man who can â€Å"take care of her†. Evidently, her husband, George Wilson, is not suitable for her. She even says â€Å"he isn’t fit to lick my shoe† (page number) This is why Myrtle finds herself another man who â€Å"qualifies† to her standards/ checklist. Throughout the novel Myrtle literally buries her relationship with George by getting involved with Tom Buchman as well she betrays herself and gives away little pieces of herself by pursuing her dream. Tom Buchman breaks her nose in chapter two yet she pur sues the relationship because she is so desperate to rise in social class. A cream is like an off-color of white; it is tainted with yellow. Fitzgerald often uses this color to portray one’s falseness and inability to fit in with the upper class. In chapter two, Myrtle wears a cream-colored dress and when someone gives her a compliment about the dress she says â€Å" â€Å" It’s just a crazy old thing, [†¦] I just slip it on sometimes when I don’t care what I look like.† (page 35). Nick remarks that Myrtle repeatedly changes her outfits so when she brushes off this compliment and acts snobbish; it becomes very evident to Nick and the readers that she is desperately trying to make herself appear superior, sophisticated and a part of the upper class. People of the upper class often wear white because it is easily corrupted so it can be replaced. White can become creamed colored but cream color clothing cannot become white. This shows how despite oneâ €™s endless effort, the American Dream is unattainable. As proven with Myrtle and Tom’s relationship, Myrtle dream is very materialistic. According to Michelle Hurley in her â€Å"The End of the American dream† she expresses â€Å"Fitzgerald documenting the corruption through materialism of what was once an era of genuine optimism and individualism –the original American dream.† This is shown through many characters but especially Myrtle. Her immoral, wrongful and materialistic perception by the American dream literally led her to her own demise. Fitzgerald kills her off in chapter seven when she gets hit by the car she was chasing after. Myrtle represents the people from lower class that attempt to defy the social boundaries at any possible cost. However, her fate unfolds that anyone who endeavors to disobey the American dream will suffer severe and deadly consequences. Furthermore, Jay Gatsby also known as James Gatz executes multiple unethical actions driven by his desire to achieve wealth and love. Motivated by Dan Cody and his loathing of the poverty-stricken life, Gatsby seeks a simple way to become apart of the wealthy class. Therefore, Gatsby becomes involved in some illegal business; this becomes especially obvious when Nick first meets Meyer Wolfsheim and Gatsby says, â€Å" â€Å"Oh, no, [†¦] this isn’t the man!† page number!!!!. Gatsby panics because Meyer Wolfsheim almost discloses confidential information about the business to the wrong person. Although it does not directly state in the novel that Gatsby is involved in the bootlegging business, many clues such as Gatsby’s relationships with questionable people like Mayor Wolfsheim as well as Gatsby’s story’s about his past that never seems to add up suggest that Gatsby is not completely innocent. This also causes the readers to question how exact ly he earned his fortune. In addition, this shows how Gatsby’s morals openly oppose the idea of the American dream which states that only those who â€Å"work hard can achieve it†. Daisy Buchman means the world to Gatsby; his genuine American dream was to attain Daisy’s love. Everything he does in the novel he does for the sole purpose of getting her back into his life. Daisy and Gatsby had a great love before he went off to represent his country in the war; In her article â€Å"The end of the American dream†, Michelle Hurley explains that â€Å"Daisy promised to wait for him but — being fickle, materialistic and in demand– she married Tom Buchanan instead.†. Not only does this show the carelessness and selfishness of the upper class but it also shows the cruelness of the American dream. Gatsby does everything to â€Å"woo† Daisy over; he throws parties in hope that one day she would attend one and he even gets involved in immo ral business all with the sole purpose of getting Daisy to fall in love with him once again.Yet despite all of his efforts, Daisy screws him over and his American dream stabs him right in the back. Finally, for years Gatsby paints an unrealistic picture for himself of Daisy. Nick even tells Gatsby to stop expecting so much from Daisy because she will crack from the pressure and he will lose her. Nick also repeatedly reminds Gatsby that the past cannot be recreated yet Gatsby continually opposes this idea. As a result of Daisy’s inability to reach this unreal illusion that Gatsby idealized constantly disappoints Gatsby and causes him to ask for more from her. In the end, he dies waiting for her which represents the reality of the unreachable American dream. Gatsby’s unrealistic and unachievable comprehension/ perception of the American dream, as well as his kindness and innocence, eventually leads him to disappointment and his own demise. Finally, Daisy Buchman was born and raised on the opposite social spectrum as Gatsby. As Gatsby remarks Daisy’s â€Å" voice is full of money† Page NUMber; her main value in life is wealth and social. She has adapted to her wealthy lifestyle ever since she was little which clouds her understanding and view of the American dream. As said by Jordan Sarah Head, â€Å" Daisy and Tom’s common denominator is wealth and an upper-class position†. Even after falling in love with Gatsby, Daisy marries Tom not as much because she loves him but because she loves what he represents. She believed that because of his appreciable wealth he could â€Å"care for her† and make her happy but as once said by Denzel Washington â€Å"Money doesn’t buy happiness. This is why even though she is truly in love with Jay Gatsby she gives up her happiness for her materialistic values. Furthermore, Daisy Buchman and Gatsby come from the complete opposite sides of the wealth spectrum. Daisy Buchman has the lifestyle that most people believe http://web.a.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail/detail?vid=10&sid=769a7693-0ce6-41e7-bba1-181bb4c496aa%40sessionmgr4006&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#AN=9306106555&db=aqh http://web.a.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=26&sid=769a7693-0ce6-41e7-bba1-181bb4c496aa%40sessionmgr4006 Daisy Buchanan

Authentic Assessment Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Authentic Assessment - Essay Example Introduction Despite some unquestionable achievements of the over-decade-long US anti-terrorist campaign, insofar as al-Qaeda’s terrorist network and the Taliban have suffered heavy blows with the loss of many key figures from their senior leadership, most notably Osama bin Laden, the terrorism – the Islamist extremist terrorism in particular – is neither vanquished nor eradicated. Moreover, following 9/11, there was a wave of terrorist acts worldwide, including such against US military personnel and civilians in Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, etc.; while the tightened security measures, along with the intensified vigilance of the police, FBI and the intelligence community as a whole, prevented many terrorist plots to develop into violence on US territory (Mueller, 2011). Tragic occurrences such as the shootings at Fort Hood, where 13 people were killed and 32 wounded, allegedly by a radicalized Army psychiatrist, appear more or less an exception (King and Thom pson, 2011). The terrorists’ bigger success abroad, measured in sheer number of both cases of materialized violence and, regrettably, American citizens being murdered or injured, infers that the overseas security efforts of the US government are hindered by certain inadequacies. The suicidal bomb attack on the residential area inhabited by service personnel of the US military base in Floola and their families, along with the attack on the USA’s embassy in Libya, which resulted in the US Ambassador being killed, is a fresh reminder of this painful fact. Terrorism – Trends, Tactics and Perpetrators As Chasdi (2012) points out, the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System /WITS/ of the US National Counterterrorism Center /NCTC/ has identified certain trends in the field of terrorism, emerging from global, regional and national developments (p. 67). The figures provided by WITS indicate that over 10Â  000 terrorist attacks occurred in 2011, which affected 70 countries w orldwide and resulted in over 12Â  500 deaths (National Counterterrorism Center /NCTC/, 2012). While the total number of attacks has fallen by 12 percent and 29 percent, as compared to 2010 and 2007 respectively, the main foci of terrorist activities remain the regions of South Asia and the Near East; taken together, the two locations experienced almost two-thirds of the high-casualty attacks in 2009 and over 75 percent of 2011 total (NCTC, 2010; NCTC, 2012). Afghanistan, along with Iraq and Pakistan, bore the brunt of the reported attacks for the third consecutive year, both in terms of attacks’ number and ensuing death toll (NCTC, 2009; NCTC, 2010, NCTC, 2011). The number of terrorist attacks in Africa and related fatalities, mainly associated with the turmoil in Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo, oscillated between a rise of 140 percent (2 200 fatalities) in 2008, as compared to 2007, and a drop of more than 30 percent in 2010, as against 2009 – from over 3à ‚  200 fatalities to 2Â  131 respectively (NCTC, 2009; NCTC, 2011). The increase of 11.5 percent during 2011, however, is mainly attributable to the Nigeria-based group Boko Haram (NCTC, 2012). The situation in the Western Hemisphere could be also described as variable, insofar as the number of reported terrorist attacks fell by about 25 percent in 2008 and subsequently rose by 27 percent in 2009; while in 2010, both attacks and deaths declined by

Nurse patient ratio act Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Nurse patient ratio act - Essay Example There will also be a good number of nurses who are available to cater to unexpected tasks. Where the nurse-to-patient ratio is concerned, the National Nursing Shortage and Reform Act stipulates that each unit should have its own requirements on the number of nurses that will be allowed to work for each shift (Conway, Konetzka, Zhu, Volpp and Sochalski, 2008). The bill also allows for the annual evaluation of the staffing plans of public hospitals where the nurse-to-patient staffing ratio is concerned. Making the workload more manageable for nurses will make the hospital environment safer as nurses will have more time to accord personalized care. The nurses will also be able to recognize any shifts in the physical conditions of their patients, thus allowing them to make timely corrections that will prevent the deterioration of patients. The bill will also allow more time for different operations; meaning that nurses will make less mistakes as a result of hurrying from one ward to anot her. This bill can also improve on medical costs for patients as the nurses will have more time in which to perform different complicated functions- meaning that they are less likely to make mistakes that cost additional funds to correct. Supportive Organizations The National Nurses United (NNU) is one of the most powerful establishments that are in support of the National Nursing Shortage and Reform Act. The NNU has even stated that a study quoted in the Health Services Research made the discovery that in California, fixed staffing levels have contributed towards reducing the state’s mortality rates in the cases of general surgery patients. Fixed staffing levels also resulted in higher levels of reported job satisfaction in the nursing workforce. The study also found that if hospitals in New Jersey and Pennsylvania were to set up the staffing levels in the same way as were set in California, there would be fewer numbers of deaths suffered by surgery patients. This means that the more nurses a hospital has, the better off the patients will be. There are also other federal organizations that have actually supplied funds to ensure that there are adequate numbers of nurses in various hospitals. The Health Resources and Services Administration’s (HRSA’s) Division of Nursing in 2004 was the beneficiary of appropriations in support of student scholarships, nursing education, nurse retention, faculty development, and workforce diversity. The Centers for Medicaid and Medicaid Services (CMS) in 2004 also granted more than $6 million for Patient Care Work Force Stabilization programs to sixteen hospitals. This money was meant to assist in address retention of experienced nurses, adequate hospital staffing, and secure competitive compensation for staff working in medical facilities (Allen, 2008). Rationale for the Bill: Why is it an Appropriate Bill to Support Nursing? If the current nursing shortage persists, the nurses that are left in the hospital s will be forced to take on more patients per shift. This will increase their exhaustion and create a situation where the patients are exposed to insufficient care on a daily basis. In addition, there are demographic changes that are taking place in the working population where Baby-Boomers who work as nurses are set to retire in the near future Lacey and Wright (2009). This will further exacerbate the current

Pidgins and Creoles Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Pidgins and Creoles - Essay Example A sentence in pidgin lacks prepositions, articles, subordinate clause and auxiliary verbs that connect the subject. Pidgin sentences are a collection of verbs, nouns and adjectives. Though the idea is communicated well, the contextual detail in the information is lost while communicating through a pidgin. Pidgins usually develop into creoles. Creoles follow grammatical rules with common rules for speakers and have a structural format for sentences. The metamorphosis from a pidgin to creoles is viewed as a natural development to the persistence of the language (Stafford). In the creole sentence, 'But how child of uncle Oom do die then', it may be noted that the tense deviates from the standard use of the verb. The phonology is poorly constructed by using the verbs incorrectly, though the message is conveyed to the listener. The word 'do' is improperly used instead of the word 'did', since the reason for death should be asked in the past tense. The poor structure of the sentence and usage of grammar may be attributed to the incapability of the speaker to use the lexis. However, the usage of then at the end of the sentence gives a clear picture to the listener that the speaker is questioning an incident. While analyzing the sentence it... Even if the speaker has used proper grammar the words in the sentence should easily interconnect itself resulting in the usage of a proper lexis (Willis p.23). In the above sentence though the message is communicated through a collection of words, it does not give a pleasing sound to the listener thus substantiating that the sentence is a creole. While evaluating the sentence, 'Yes, be one nice question, TAG. Well, I PAST be at Novar,' the correct usage of lexis gains importance. The word nice is usually used as an adjective to appreciate the quality of a behavior or material. The poor organization of words thus denotes wrong use of phonology in a pidgin. In this creole, the word nice has been used instead of the word good. The incorrect usage of tense is again found in the sentence, I be at Novar, I be with one man, PAST IMP talk story with one man, where the word 'be' is used instead of was. The repeated use of the word 'man' indicates the wrong usage of lexis, since the creole speaker is less familiar with extensive vocabulary to use common words like 'guy' to refer to a person and therefore results in the poor usage of words or phonology differentiating the sentence from standard English. It is again noted in the sentence, 'Then one man ride come with one bike, but the man who come take me, he and the-pl DEM NEG be good' that the speaker has used two verbs consecutively. The words 'ride' and 'come' is used to communicate the arrival of a person denoting improper grammar, phonology and lexis. The speaker has used the native language in the sentence with no grammatical continuity. The sentence, 'Then the man stay at street then he IMP shout call

Interdisciplinary Team Approach for Asthma Essay

Interdisciplinary Team Approach for Asthma - Essay Example This paper illustrates that 20-year-old James, an engineering student, was admitted to the adult ward with complaints of a cough, chest tightness, wheezing since one day and difficulty in breathing for 2 hours. Prior to the onset of these symptoms he suffered from running nose for a couple of days. He had no fever, vomiting or abdominal pain. A cough was worse in the nights and in the early morning. Exercise and exposure to cold increased a cough. On further inquiry into the past history, the patient complained that he suffered from repeated attacks of a cough and chest tightness on and off since 6 months, especially when he had the running nose or was exposed to the cold environment. Since the symptoms were not severe, James did not see a doctor then for those symptoms. However, breathlessness in the current episode made him come to the hospital. James was a smoker and smokes about 3-4 cigarettes a day. He consumes alcohol occasionally. He did not have hypertension or diabetes. He h ad no known allergies. His father is a known patient with asthma. On examination, James was alert and oriented to time, place and person. He was finding it difficult to talk continuously. He preferred to sit and talk and avoid lying down. He had no cyanosis or peripheral edema. He appeared mildly pale. Respiratory rate was 25 per minute, pulse rate was 100 per minute, temperature normal, blood pressure 130/80mmHg. Auscultation of the chest revealed presence of breath sounds bilaterally with prolonged expiration. Rhonchi were heard in the basal areas of the chest. Occasional crepitations were also heard. Saturations were 90 percent. Examination of the other systems was unremarkable. In view of the severity of the condition and low saturation on pulse oximetry, James was admitted to the adult ward for further, evaluation, observation, and management. James was accompanied by his parents.

Tom DeLay indictment Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Tom DeLay indictment - Essay Example While it is not a criminal offence to receive additional funding, becoming charged of conspiracy in a campaign finance scheme has serious implications. Unlawful transfer of company's assets or property to finance election campaigns is strongly prohibited in Texas State. Nevertheless, it was found that the sum $190,000 was transferred from associates of DeLay and companies to the accounts of seven candidates. John Colyandro and Jim Ellis were also accused in violation Texas election law. In spite this fact, "no evidence to support the conspiracy charge was cited in the indictment, which says only that DeLay and two named associates entered "into an agreement with one or more of each other" or with the committee to conduct the funds transfer" (Smith, 2005). The only evidence presented to the a Texas grand jury was the check in corporate money, but Tom Delay denies the fact that he used corporate funds illegally and conspiringly. DeLay told "I have done nothing wrong. ... I am innocent" He added that "the charges amounted to "one of the weakest and most baseless indictments in American history." (DeLay indicted, steps down as majority leader, 2005). Tom DeLay's attorney, Dick DeGuerin, stated that the money transferred were "lawfully collected from individuals who knew what they were contributing to".

Recycled toothbrushes makes sense Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Recycled toothbrushes makes sense - Assignment Example 2) In addition to advertising recycled-plastic toothbrushes through the character of Harold Crick, Recycline could make use of a variety of sports stars to help promote its products. Sports stars are instantly recognizable to many in the general public and will help consumers to identify the product with their favorite role models. Sports are a big part of most people’s lives and thus are an attractive advertising medium. 3) As the company grows larger, it will have to come up with additional ways to supply its recycled toothbrushes. Currently, the company’s operations are quite small and can cope with the influx of recycled products. If and when the company expands its influence nationwide, it will have to come up with a strategy to continue to receive recycled products. One such way could be to open up recycling centers in main cities and collect recycled products locally. From there, all the recycled materials could be sent to one large distribution warehouse and then made into the final

Organizational Design and Culture Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Organizational Design and Culture - Essay Example Culture tends to be presented in the change literature as a variable, which is susceptible to control and available to management for manipulation. Yet sociologists and anthropologists of various persuasions have long argued for a more organic, processual and dynamic approach to questions of culture than the rather narrow materialist view would suggest. Organizational cultures are continuously constructed and reconstructed through interaction and intervention at the everyday level: they are constantly in process and tend largely to resist central control. This is reflected in the poor track record of many planned corporate culture programmes: while a few mission statements and indoctrination sessions might change senior management' s perspective.Culture assumes significance usually because the strategy of the organization, the type of people in power and its structure and systems reflect the dominant managerial ideology or culture. Furthermore, such managerial ideologies may be more important than environmental factors in guiding organizational response. Managerial ideology, in recent years, has focused on the core characteristics associated with the "best run", "achievement-oriented", "excellent" organizations. Core dimensions include an action focus, high customer awareness; entrepreneurship; and autonomy. Therefore by implication, it is being suggested that a model which assumes low employee commitment simply cannot match the standards of excellence set by world-class manufacturers.

Labor issue paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 4500 words

Labor issue paper - Essay Example In this case, the competency of the new management was a decisive factor in the resolution of the dispute. However, to minimize losses associated with labor disputes, it is far from enough to wait for the advent of competent management. Business administration must get in front of studies on measures to prevent and handle any disputes associated with employment adjustment by sorting out the problems of managerial ability issues. 1. Aim The aim of this study is to make a preliminary discussion on critical turning points of one prolonged large-scale labor dispute about economic dismissal, which lasted for over 14 years including the trial period. The author has studied actual litigation cases associated with employment adjustment. ... For example, some employers did not make appropriate efforts in labor bargaining before trial, and many of them dismissed workers who chose to bring actions to the court with little change of winning the lawsuit (or without such standpoint), despite their financial difficulties due to the economic dismissals1. Even when important and well-known legal judgments such as the high court decision for the Toyo Suiso case were received, quite a few parties pressed ahead with a full appeal and after all trials, many of them still continued bargaining. In other words, they make significant sacrifices for trials that might seem to be unnecessary from the viewpoint of innocent bystanders and moreover, they spend enormous amounts of time to find resolution to the dispute aside from ongoing trials. Things they lose and social costs they pay through such disputes are too much. Employment adjustments do not necessarily cause labor disputes and not all disputes are brought to the court. Where are th e turning points that make disputes about employment adjustment to be prolonged and large-scale? A number of studies are necessary to provide an appropriate conclusion of such a critical issue. Therefore, the goal of this study is narrowed down to make working hypotheses about managerial turning points in a prolonged large-scale dispute about employment adjustment. In concrete terms, as there are only few past studies on cases where a dispute about employment adjustment was brought to the court, the past studies of the author et al. are reviewed to clarify managerial turning points that made the disputes to be prolonged and large-scale as well as make a basis for future studies. 2.

George Washington Essay Example for Free

George Washington Essay The shift of power in the late 1790’s by the Federalists can be attributed to different factor that had caused such incidents. In understanding this loss, the fall from power does not revolve around the hold of the government. Rather, it is the shift of ideas and reshaping of new interests that had led to the split of views among the American public and the rise of a new group who had a different view with the dominant Federalists. These changes began to manifest itself during George Washington’s tenure as president. Under his control, he had established a capable cabinet to address the current hurdles and obstacles surrounding American society during that time (Intelecom, n.d.). On one side, we can see Alexander Hamilton who seeks to redefine America’s policies and improve on the economy. On the other hand, his secretary of State; Thomas Jefferson, sees these scenarios as too much for central control. There are several issues surrounding this debate between Jefferson and Hamilton. Since the impeding issues of economic problems surrounding the country, there is now an argument surrounding creating a centralized bank that will facilitate these economic issues. However, this was hindered by Jefferson because such creation can undermine the overall capacity of the state to act on these problems (Intelcom, n.d.). At the same time, there is the issue surrounding national debt. Again, there are contrasting views surrounding its resolution. For the part of Jefferson, it is essential that the state pay off these debts and restart with policies that are debt-free which can in turn benefit the whole of the people. On the other hand, for Hamilton he believes that these debts should be hold on by the government. After this, he thinks to centralize these debt systems which shall be facilitated by the national treasury (Intelcom, n.d.). Though there were several arguments that have made a split in Washington’s cabinet, there was one important consolidation among the actors involved. This was choosing the appropriate capital for the central government. In here, it can be argued that Jefferson advocated the transfer of the central office to now Washington D.C. so as to prevent too much control of Federalists in a specific location. That is why choosing a neutral ground is an outcome that both parties especially Jefferson wanted (Intelcom, n.d.). Seeing these developments during the tenure of George Washington, the decline of Federalists power became evident during the formation of individuals who sought to control the level of centralization among other groups. Thus, this started the formation of the Republican Party and showcased a new wave towards redefining views concerning society, politics, and the economy (Intelcom, n.d.). This rise of the Republican party manifested itself after the presidency of George Washington in 1897.Though the head of office was gained by the Federalists, the vice-presidential position was attained by a member of the Republican party; Thomas Jefferson. Seeing this development, the country then saw for the first time two leaders who share opposing views concerning running a country. Such split is one indication of the end of the Federalists grasp of American politics. In the end, the loss of power and control of the Federalist Party resulted in different and contrasting views concerning political and economic politics. With the development of the Republican Party, it allowed the American public to have a choice on important and vital issues surrounding policies on domestic and foreign policy. Such idea catapulted a new wave of how politics and issues are addressed and administered by members of the government. Reference Intelecom (n.d.) Power Struggle Between Federalists and Republicans. Retrieved March 7, 2009 from, http://www.intelecomonline.net/VideoPlayer.aspx?Code=BDEF3032E99ACF2BD2D23910C9607455152966AE3C779225DA277C7DE3E7D3745F9D9FA44321A1B5C3BC82D441AC0566# Intelecom (n.d.) The Presidential Election of 1976. Retrieved March 7, 2009 from, http://www.intelecomonline.net/VideoPlayer.aspx?Code=BDEF3032E99ACF2BD2D23910C96074553A771997888BD3CE172D9718409283795AA3E4F7FDA67740E47B365B657B11DF#

History Of The Hotel Industry Tourism Essay

History Of The Hotel Industry Tourism Essay The hotel industry is any types or forms of business which relates to providing accommodations in lodging, food and beverage and a vast variety of services that are interrelated and organised which are intended for public service. Hotels offer enormous range of guests services such as banqueting, conference and fitness, sport and facilities, beauty spas, bars, sophisticated restaurant and others. The hotel sector consists of more than 15% of all the people who worked in the hospitality sector. Hotels falls into a number of different categories which includes the glamorous five-star resort international luxury chains, trendy boutiques, country house, conference, leisure or guest houses. This very dynamic sector offers good quality accommodation, great variety of food and beverage, together with other services for all types of customers. The hotel sector is always striving to offer excellent customer service throughout its operations. History of the Hotel Industry The hospitality industrys history can be traced back by the end of 1700s in the Colonial Period. This industry has been the subject of important development over the years as it has faced many obstacles such as the World Wars, the great depression, the industrial revolution and other social changes. However, the hotel industry as seen today in its modern concept took place in the 1950s and 60s. The idea of renting an accommodation to visitors appeared since ancient times, and the modern concept of a hotel as we know started 1794, when the  City Hotel opened in New York City; the City Hotel was claimed to be the first building designed exclusively to  hotel operations. Other similar hotel operations follow the trend and appeared in other cities such as Philadelphia, Baltimore and Boston in 1809.   The 1760s  industrial revolution has much lead to the emerging of hotels everywhere, mainly in England, Europe and in America. The advent of new ways of transportations, hotels and resorts outside of major cities was built in the countryside and began promoting their scenery and other attractions. The concept of the vacation was developed and available to more and more of the population. In the 1920s, the construction of hotel took a boom phase where many well-known hotels were opened. As from that period a flow of famous hotels flooded in America and the rest of the world with prominent brand such as Radisson, Marriot, Hilton and more others. Organisations representing hotels worldwide The Tourism industry worldwide has generated billions for recipient countries, making the tourism industry one of the most successful sectors in international trade in services. Often facing economically difficult times there has been the creation of several world organisations to monitor progress, promote and developed sustainable tourism in the hotel industry. The following are some of the world organisations representing the tourism and travel industry: i) World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) The (UNWTO) is one of the United Nations agencies, which is accountable for the advancement of responsible and sustainable tourism. Being the Word leading organization in the tourism sector, UNWTO promotes tourism as a mean for economic growth, development and environmental sustainability and offers the monitoring and assistance to the hotel sector in creating market knowledge and promotes competitive global tourism policies. ii) International Hotel Restaurant Association (IHRA) The  IHRA is an international association representing the welfares of hotel  and  restaurant industries. IHRA main members are national hotel and restaurant associations which are located worldwide. Their main mission is the monitoring of international agencies in the tourism industry. It comprises of 300,000 hotels and 8 million restaurants, this represents 60 million people who worked in the sector and raise more 950 billion USD yearly iii) HSMAI Hospitality Sales Marketing Association International The HSMAI is the largest international association of travel sales and marketing professionals. The association have over 4,000 members from different travel and tourism organisations including hotels, resorts, airlines, cruise lines and others in 31 countries worldwide, with the purpose of improving sales and marketing, education and management skills in the hospitality organisations worldwide. iv) The  World Travel Tourism Council  (WTTC) The WTTC is a global authority which caters for the economic and social impact of Travel Tourism. Its main aim is to support sustainable growth in the industry, while working in collaboration with different governments and international institutions to generate employments, to boost exports and to bring prosperity. Growth of Hotel Industry Worldwide The rise in levels of  income  and standard of living  but also coupled with an increase in  leisure time has been especially beneficial to the tourism industry. The advent of  technological progress particularly through higher capacity cruise ships and aircrafts,  computerized reservation systems, better road transport facilities have played key roles in the global growth of hotel industry. Moreover, improved productivity has been encouraging to the industry by aiding to reduce costs and making travel and tourism products more accessible and affordable. As competition in the industry increases worldwide, the customers have reap great benefits in terms of   lower prices  coupled from a wider choice  as the organizations have to  differentiate their products  from the crowd to attract niche market but also to struggle to enhance and improved the quality of their services. Implementing new strategies to marketing and promotion and innovative products are increasing the demand for destinations. The  governments as a facilitator, fund provider and legislator  have also had played its part on the development of the industry.   New consumer needs and attitudes  have also driven the growth of specific segments, for instance new tourism concept such as medical tourism and ecotourism are booming. Moreover, the increased  level of economic activity  which has led to an upsurge in business travel and also the rising tendency of international movement. In fact, even though there is the presence global economic challenges, the developments of hotels keep progressing, with additional innovative rooms being injected into global room supply by independent hotels and hotel chains. Statistics According to the UN World Tourism Organisation, in 1950 the international tourist arrivals was at 25 million in 1950 is now set to surpass 1 billion by end of 2012, with an 1.8 billion worldwide arrival by 2020. In the beginning of 2012, the World Travel Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates that global growth for the Travel Tourism of 2.7%, slightly downgraded from the 2.8% than that was expected for the industry. The trend for Travel Tourism figures has been positive for the beginning of 2012 and has exceeded anticipations from the start of the year. Global tourist arrivals have progressed to 4.9% in the year 2012 from January to June, whereas airline passenger traffic is up 6.8%, and hotel occupancy rates are growing in most markets. In the year 2011, the Travel Tourism industries accounted for 255 million jobs globally generating 9 per cent of world GDP while generating billions for host economies; explaining why this industry plays a significant role in global investment and economic growth. Statistics unveiled by the World Tourism Organization (WTO), in 2008 shows than an estimated 924 million worldwide tourist arrivals, shows an increase of 1.76% compared to 2007. In 2009, international tourist arrivals experience a fall of 882 million, representing a worldwide drop of 4.4% over 2008. The world destinations witnesses a total of 600 million arrivals, and tourist arrivals in the whole world fell by 7% in the beginning of year 2009, but the trend have been rather been steady in recent months. These recent results and combined economic data, confirms UNWTOs initial forecast a 5% fall in global tourist arrivals during the year 2009. Moreover, the global tourism in 2011 increases by 4.4%, attaining $980 million international tourist arrivals. The estimation for 2012 according to the UNWTO expects a grow in the sector but at somewhat a lower rate, but allows to touch the reach of 1,000 million international tourists by the end of 2012.

Strategies to Meet Energy Demands in the UK

Strategies to Meet Energy Demands in the UK 1.0 Introduction The question of how Britain will be able to meet its energy demand in the next 10 10 years is a matter of concern for the British Government. With aging nuclear plants, replacing these with cleaner and more energy efficiency plants is going to be a challenge. This dissertation aims to investigate the governments proposals to construct a new generation of nuclear plants and rely more on renewable technologies, whilst meeting the energy demand in next 10 20 years and cutting C02 emissions. 1.1 Aims If Government proposals for new nuclear plants and renewable technologies will be able to meet Britains energy demands 1.2 Objectives Is the current proposals the only answer Can they meet their targets of cutting C02 emissions whilst meeting demand Will they be able to construct the nuclear plants on time Have all issues been addressed, such as safety concerns when considering constructing the nuclear plant. Should renewables have a bigger contribution 1.3 Rationale The British Government have been concerned with the gap of meeting the British demand in the next 10 20 years. With aging nuclear plants and questions surrounding what is going replace these, and the commitment of meeting targets to cut C02 emissions. The government has proposed to build a new generation of nuclear power stations and rely more on renewable energy to meet these demands. The conversational decision on this issue has raised further questions on whether this will be enough to make sure Britain does not suffer power black outs in the medium term. Experts in the nuclear sector have also questioned the proposals in terms of are these nuclear plants going to be build on time, who is going to pay for these plants and will the design be right to avoid any health and safety issues. Other plans that the government proposes includes relying more on renewable energy to meet demand. Heavy investment will be needed to meet this target and it remains to seen if this will be enough to meet the demand. 2.0 Literature Review 2.1 World Energy Demands Energy is fundamental in how we all lead our lives. As the years goes by and the higher the world population grows, this means that global demand for energy can only increase. The UN has predicted that as of 2005, 6.5 billion made up the worlds population, and this could grow up to 9.1 billion within 45 years (Asif and Muneer 2007). If the worlds population reaches this figure, then the world is going to face a challenge to meet the energy needs of all of these people, especially with the emerging nations such as China, India and Brazil. 2.2 Energy Usage We use energy in all ways of life and we use them in a number of ways. Areas that energy is used includes Buildings Industry Trasport Buildings Buildings consume over 60% (International Energy Outlook, 2009) of energy produced around the world. Buildings are split into domestic householders and commercial buildings. Domestic buildings usage includes space heating, lighting, air conditioning, ventilation, and general electrical appliances. The volume of the property will determine its final energy consumption. The bigger the property, the more heating and lighting it will need to make it into comfortable surroundings. For residential buildings, the physical size of the structures is one key indicator of the amount of energy used by their occupants (International Energy Outlook) Commercial buildings can include offices and government buildings such as schools and hospitals. Commercial buildings are of a similar nature to domestic buildings, but will be to a much bigger scale. For example, an office could consist of a dozens or even hundreds of computers, compared to maybe one in a domestic house. Industry Industry consumption uses around 29% (International Energy Outlook) of the total energy produced around the world. Industry energy usage includes manufacturing metals, chemicals, materials and agriculture. The industry uses the energy it receives to operate manufacturing assembly lines, processing, space heating and lighting. Transport Transport uses the vast majority of oil that is consumed around the world. Transport energy accounts for cars, trains, planes and lorries. In comparison with the other energy sectors, the transport is largely constricted to oil and cannot operate with the other fuel options. In IEA (International Energy Agency) countries, the transport sector is taking an increasing share of oil demand (Taylor) 2.3 Threats to World Energy Supply As the demand for energy grows, the threat of not producing this energy increases. 2.3.1 Fossil Fuels Fossil fuels currently produce the majority of our energy needs and take many forms. Developed countries use oil, gas and coal and all of this fossil fuel usage heavily contributes to climate change because of the C02 emissions that they produce. Developing countries will use firewood etc and in comparison to the developed countries, the developing countries will produce alot less C02 because of their methods of producing energy. As well as the effects of the fossil fuels, the fuel reserves will decrease as the years and decades go on, particular since the demands for fuels will only rise. The security of getting these fuels is also a concern because of the political divides in the Middle East, where the biggest oil fields are. The political differences between the EU and Russia are also a concern because Russia is biggest exporter to the EU. The energy policies of Britain and France take these threats into account and are putting in place measures to reduce the threat. The threats t hat Britain and France predict is the increasing importation of these fuels, at the same time as demand goes up and the political strains increase. Our increasing reliance on imports of oil and gas in a world where energy demand is rising and energy is becoming more politicised (Meeting the energy challenge, 2007). 2.3.2 Oil Out of all of the fossil fuels, oil is the most precious and scarce. It is the primary source that we use to power our transportation system, to produce energy and used to make many different types of products. The worlds energy demand is expected to grow by 45% in the next 20 years; therefore, the demand for oil is expected to rise by 26% over the same period. Even if we do maintain the optimum amount of oil production over the next 20 years, it is very unlikely that the energy demands will be meet by oil. Oil Prices The issue of the oil peak production and its decline is much debated and opinions vary from a number of sources. One thing that is certain is that oil is not a re-newable fuel and as demands for energy increases year by year, production for oil will increase and this will deplete oil reserves more quickly. The steady growth of spot oil price exploded suddenly in the second halve of 2007: in only twelve months, the price of oil nearly double from $74/barrel on July 2007 to $147.27/barrel on July 2008 (Matutinovic, 2008.) This was a huge hike in a short space of time, caused by the demand from China and India, together with unrest in the Middle East were the main reasons. This increase in price however was short lived and to the present day is back to a manageable price. However, in the future the price will increase and stay there due to a number of factors. Energy demand going up, meaning that supply and demand will be squeezed. The political unrest in unstable regions where the largest oil reserves are As the price of oil increases, so will the price of energy and we this may become uncontrollable over the long term. Security of Oil As mentioned before, the majority of oil reserves are contained within unstable regions or countries and countries that have political issues with the most developed countries. This includes the Middle East, which holds the most of the oil reserves and is almost always unstable. As the developed countries own oil reserves decrease, the importation of oil will increase from these regions and if the regions were to decline further, this may affect security of supply of the energy needs of these countries. The most important implication of such distribution of proven oil reserves is that future oil increasingly dependence on politically instable Middle East (Matutinovic) 2.3.3 Gas In the past natural gas was not used globally to produce energy and by domestic householders. It is becoming increasingly important to meet energy demands around and in particular, the EU region. As with the issues with oil, gas reserves in the European Union and USA regions are dwindling and these regions are fast becoming increasily reliant on Russia and Middle East for their supplies. The UK in particular as a large proportion of its power produced by gas power stations and this has been addressed within their energy policy of the intention to decrease the importation of gas in the long term. However, in the short medium term it is anticipated that Europes dependence on gas will go from 36% up to in 69% (Weisser H, 2005) even with the issue of climate change, as natural gas is less pollutant than coal and oil. Looking at Russia, by far the biggest supplier, for analysing the security of supply equation one has to account for the fact that this countrys energy policy is not only d etermined by economic interest but a least equally by geopolitical, foreign policy and security consideration (Weisser). Political Issues The country with the most natural gas reserves is Russia. As each year goes by, the EU will have to import gas from Russia more and more. The political relationships between Europe and Russia are not the best. This was brought about by the dispute between Russia and the Ukraine over the gas supply. This in turn reduced the supply to Europe, as the pipe goes through the Ukraine to supply Europe. This brought tensions between the EU and Russia, since then Russia has threatened the supply to Europe and dramatic price increases. Apart from the Russia, the Middle East is the second biggest exporter and like oil, is vulrable to political unrest and this may affect supplies to their customers. Gas Prices Gazprom is the biggest gas provider in Russia and world. With demand for gas going to increase in the coming years, this will give the power to increase prices to the EU and other regions. If this were to happen, this would lead to higher costs for the UK to produce power and this would lead to higher power costs for domestic householders. The price of gas will also have to increase to fund investments to find new gas fields and pipes that transport the gas. The main reason for dual gas pricing has been to provide a gas subsidy to the Russian economy. (Spanjer A, 2007) 2.3.4 Coal Coal was the first significant fossil fuel to be used by humans and was the spearhead for the industrial revolution. It is used by both developed and developing due to its availability and value Consumption Developing countries use 55% of the world consumption of coal, which includes China and India. It is predicted that this is going to rise to over 65% in the morelonger term. The availability of coal is vast, which is the primary reason why it is used so much. It is found all over world, including vast reserves in the UK. It is predicted that if the current trend of excavating coal were to continue, it may take up to a few hundred years to exhaust the earths supply. As the coal reserves are spread all over the world, this gives an advantage to the other fossil fuels of providing a greater security of supply. Because of the inevitable decline in world reserves of petroleum and natural gas and rising demand for energy, coal is a major alternative along with nuclear power to meet these meets. (Yilmaz A O, Uslu T, The role of coal in energy production Consumption and sustainable development of Turkey, Energy Policy 35, 1117 1128, page 1, 2007) Cleaner Coal In the future, it is anticipated that cleaner coal power stations are to be constructed as coal is seen as a fuel that will meet the energy demand for the medium term. This is seen as a way of meeting the energy demands because of the reserves of coal offering a much higher security of coal, but also a way to reduce the emissions that coal gives off when used to produce energy. 2.4 Climate Change The issues that are associated with climate change go back over one hundred years when scientists were discovering that greenhouse gases were interfering with the atmosphere. Over the course of history to this present day, the understanding of climate change has jumped dramatically over the past 10 years and scientists are beginning to see the potential effects that may have on the earth if we do not tackle the roots of the problem. 2.4.1 Energy Production Energy production accounts for the vast majority of the green house gases that is produced. Energy accounts for over 80% of the global anthropogenic GHGs (Quadrelli R, The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, IEA, Elsevier, page 2, 2007). These green house gases are a direct result from using fossil fuels in producing energy. The world energy supply is still very much dependant on fossil fuels to produce the energy needs for the world population, even with the growth of renewable energy. As stated before, the worlds energy demand is expected to grow significantly over the next 20 30 years as a direct consequence of a rising world population and the rapid development of China and India. 2.4.2 C02 Emissions All fossil fuels contribute to green house gases, some more than others however. Coal is the biggest contributor of C02 emissions and this will just increase as coal becomes more popular, especially with China and India. An Energy production accounts for the vast majority of the green house gases that is produced. Energy accounts for over 80% of the global anthropogenic GHGs (Quadrelli R, The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, IEA, Elsevier, page 2, 2007). These green house gases are a direct result from using fossil fuels in producing energy. The world energy supply is still very much dependant on fossil fuels to produce the energy needs for the world population, even with the growth of renewable energy. As stated before, the worlds energy demand is expected to grow significantly over the next 20 30 years as a direct consequence of a rising world population and the rapid development of China and India. 2.4.2 C02 Emissions All fossil fuels contribute to green house gases, some more than others however. Coal is the biggest contributor of C02 emissions and this will just increase as coal becomes more popular, especially with China and India. An increase of C02 emissions in the last 35 40 years has been substantial and the total amount of C02 emissions due to burning of fossil fuels reaches to about 26 billion tons. (Saito S, Role of Nuclear Energy to Future Society of Shortage of Energy Resources and Global Warming, Journal of Nuclear Materials, Elsevier, 2009). These countries will have to find a guaranteed supply and this fuel will become cheaper than oil and gas over the longer term. These countries will have to look to coal to meet its energy demands for its growing population. If the projections are correct, coal will become more popular amongst the developed nations. This will increase green house gases and that is with the policy of constructing clean coal power stations. The oil and gas sectors will still have a very important part to play in the long term, but it is projected that dependence on these fuels will decrease slowly as the price goes up and the security of supply is not guaranteed. 2.4.3 Biggest C02 Producers The biggest polluters seem are the countries with the biggest economic development, the rapid development of some countries meaning a higher energy demand and the countries population. The United States was the biggest polluter due to its economic power and industrial size. However, as China has grown rapidly, this has pushed it to become the worlds biggest polluter. This is because China has seen significant economic growth and has required it to increase its energy production to meet its industrial growth. 2.4.4 Affects of Climate Change The affects of climate change will be catastrophic if the current trend of C02 emissions continues. Climate Change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world access to water, food production, health and use of land and the environment (THE STERN REPORT, Executive Summary (Long), page 6, 2006). Rise in sea levels The affect of the earth heating up will mean the two polar ice caps melting, making the global sea levels rising. This will mean that countries or regions with a low altitude could mean land being lost. Global sea rises will mean millions of people being displaced and having to find alternative areas to live. Vegetation areas These areas could change the whole global landscape, in terms of the areas where crops could be grown. This could mean areas where crops are grown just now, will not able to grow in the future and this again may displace millions of people, especially in the more developing regions such as Africa. Weather systems There is current evidence that the weather pattern is already changing. The likelihood of this worsening is very real if climate change is not tackled. This includes an increase in category 5 hurricanes, increased flooding and an increase in heat waves due to temperature rises. Temperature rises will also lead to sever forest fires in regions such as Australia and California. 2.5 Financial Implications of Climate Change As well as the physical implications of climate change, the financial consequences may well be as bad for all countries if climate change is not tackled and heavy investment put in place 2.5.1 STERN REPORT The STERN report was produced to assess the potential damage that climate change could inflict on economies around the world. The evidence shows that ignoring climate change will eventually damage economic growth (THE STERN REPORT, Executive Summary (Long), page 2, 2006). The report consists and focuses on a number of issues The affects of climate change on the economies The costs of putting in control measures to reduce the affects of climate changes The investment needed to change to an infrastructure that omits less C02 emissions The report highlights the relation of GDP in relation to the increase in temperatures. There seems to be a trend in that for every one degree that the temperature goes up, then 1 per cent of GDP is lost. As well as the GDP, the biggest affect that climate change could have on is the developing countries, particular Africa. The report highlights that the ability to grow crops will reduce and water supplies will decrease dramatically and this will displace millions of people. 2.5.2 Investment The STERN report also points out that investment is now needed to prevent much higher costs being incurred in the longer-term. The report comments that such investment should include the acceleration of cleaner and renewable energy. 2.6 Energy Policies Energy policies are produced by governments to help them plan their countries energy production for the long term, set targets for cutting C02 emissions and evaluating their methods of producing energy. 2.6.1 Contents of Energy Policies The contents of energy policies will wholly depend what country it is, how much GDP it produces and how confident they will be in making sure that they can meet their targets Energy Policies will usually contain the following Security of supply Evaluation of their current energy production methods Methods of making sure that they have sufficient ways in meeting demand Outline any new ways in producing their energy Ways in which they will tackle climate change Their policies of using renewable energy to produce power. 2.7 Renewable Energy Policies Renewable energy is essential for meeting the commitment to cut C02 emissions, to ensure the world can meet the energy demands, security of supply and eventually leading to cheaper energy in the long term in comparison with fossil fuel produced energy. Renewable energy technologies have increased dramatically in the last 5 years. Its essential to have renewable energy in a countries energy policy to help meet all these commitments. To the present day, 73 countries are thought to have included a renewable strategy within their policy. Between 2004 and 2008, over $120 billion of investment has put in place to increase the usage of renewables. Although this investment is substantial, it is predicted that that this type of investment will have to be spent every year to help renewables get to a level to produce energy to a stage where it can compete with coal and gas. While most renewable fuels are free, renewable energy projects have high up-front costs (Sawin J L, National Policy Documents, International Conference for Renewable Energies, page 5, 2004). Renewable Energy types include Solar Power Wind Power Hydro Geothermal Biomass Tidal Power 2.7.1 Wind Power Out of all of the renewable technologies, wind power is by far the most used around the world. Wind power was the largest addition to renewable energy capacity (Renewables Global Status Report 2009, REN21, page 11, 2009). Wind power comes in two forms either on shore or off shore. Wind power is particularly used throughout the EU due to its climate. Wind power production percentage throughout the EU varies, with Germany being the most productive country within the EU. 2.7.2 Solar Power At the end of 2007, solar power production accounted for around 0.5% of the power produced. As with the wind power restrictions, solar power is more effective where countries are better situated to get sun on a regular basis. Also as solar power is expensive to build in comparison to the more conventional power stations, this currently makes it unviable to construct until capital costs come down. 2.6.3 Other Renewables The other options of renweables make up a tiny proportion of energy production, in comparison to the wind and solar. Heavy investment is needed to bring these up to level where they will be seen as a potential energy source as the other options. 2.8 Nuclear Energy Nuclear power has is fast becoming one of the main sources of power for a few countries within the EU and the USA. Apart from the Western countries, nuclear power is fast becoming the one of the major sources of producing energy. There over 100 hundred power stations currently being built in Asia and alot more are being planned. Nuclear Power alone wont get us where we need to be, but we wont get there without it. (Abu-Khader M M, Recent Advances in Nuclear Power: A Review, Nuclear Energy 51, 225 233, Elsevier, 2009) 2.8.1 Production Nuclear power currently accounts for around for 14 per cent of the power produced around the world. It is expected that this will grow rapidly over the longer term as the worlds most developed countries construct more plants to meet energy demands. 2.8.2 Why Nuclear Nuclear power has big advantages over the current main sources of power production. Security of Supply Nuclears raw material is more readily available than other fossil fuels. This gives it a more guaranteed security of supply of generating the energy needed. Importing uranium is expensive to import, however it can be stored for several years and makes it less of a concern. Price Rises Nuclear power is less of risk of being the subject to a large price rise. This is because it is cheaper to run the power plant in comparison to gas and coal power stations. 2.14 Bar Chart Showing Predicted Price Rises for Each Fuel Type (Adamantiades A, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Status and Future Prospects, Energy Policy 37 5149 5166, 2009) A doubling in the price of Uranium would cause a 5-6% increase in the total cost of generation, while a similar increase in the price of natural gas would lead to 65% increase in gasfired costs. ((Adamantiades A, Kessides I, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Current Status and Prospects, Energy Policy, Elsevier, page 2, 2009). Climate Change As with renewable energy, nuclear plants produce little or no C02 emissions. As the world is becoming increasily concerned with climate change, severe cuts of C02 emissions are being set and nuclear is seen a key player in reducing these emissions. 2.8.3 Safety Concerns After the tragic accident at Chernobyl, it was understandable that nuclear power got a bad reputation around the world, with some countries even banning it altogether. However, since safety factors in constructing and operating a nuclear plant have improved greatly and the idea of nuclear power is taking off again. During the past two decades, nuclear power plants have also achieved increasingly higher capacity factors with the same or greater levels of safety (Adamantiades A, Kessides I, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Current Status and Prospects, Energy Policy, Elsevier, page 12,2009). 2.15 Bar Chart Showing Fatalities by Fuel Type (Adamantiades A, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Status and Future Prospects, Energy Policy 37 5149 5166, 2009) The most obvious risk of operating a nuclear plan is exposing the public to radiation poisoning, with Chernobyl being the best example. Strict measures are now in place to greatly reduce such a tragedy happening again. This includes conducting risk assessments and putting in control measure to reduce the risks. 2.8.4 Nuclear Waste The debate of nuclear waste was one the biggest obstacles for the new generation nuclear plants being constructed. Although the storage of nuclear is major concern, the technology is in place to manage safely and effectively. In comparison with the waste that fossil fuels produce, it is signifcently less. 3.0 Methodology My method of research was to use a mixture of both quantitative and quantitative research methods. 3.1 Quantitative and Qualitative Research The method of using quantitative is and will be limited, in comparison with the other forms of data collection. This has used up to this point for comparing statistics, figures and forecasts. This is based on using journals, government reports and reliable websites being used to gather this information to allow me to compare the above. It will be my intention to continue this form data collection when completing my dissertation The method of using qualitative will be the form of research that the bulk of dissertation will be based on. This is based on sources from journals, books, government reports, reliable websites, interviews and case studies. It will be my intention to continue with this form data collection when completing my dissertation. Journals This form of gathering data has helped me gather the majority of my information. I have gathered peoples perceptions, thoughts and opinions of this subject. Information gathered was mostly opinions in the form of text, graphs and diagrams. Government Reports This has allowed me to focus on the subjects that I need to concentrate to be able to answer my aims and objectives. Information gathered included factual statistics and text. Websites This form of sourcing of information allowed me to gather some of quantitative and qualitative information. I made sure that these websites were reliable websites and that the information was as accurate. Information gathered included graphs, statistics and text. 3.2 Interviews My intention is to organise three interviews with three different organisations. This is to allow 3 different opinions based on the subject of my dissertation. This will include getting opinions on people who are involved with the nuclear programme, the renewable sector and an organisation that represents somebody/something for which the nuclear plants or the rapid construction of renewables may have negative consequences. 3.2.1 Initial Contact and Organisations My initial contact to arrange interviews was via e-mail. I asked them for an interview by introducing myself, the reason for the interview and the topic of my dissertation. My first contact was Mr David Cameron, of the Scottish Renewables trust. He kindly agreed to an interview in his Glasgow based office and agreed that I would be in touch when I am ready to conduct the interview. My agenda for this interview is to get his views on the developments of the renewables sector, the developments of the nuclear sector and will this be able to meet the energy demand My second contact was Mr Peter Dobson, of Scottish and Southern Energy who are directly involved with the nuclear program within the UK. My contact with him came about because of the close relationship that my employer and SSE have. My agenda for this interview will be similar to my first contact My third contact I hope to be the Scottish Wildlife trust. I have still to make contact with this gruop. My agenda for this interview will be to get the developments on both nuclear and renewables development in the UK and how this could affect the British ecosystem. When it comes to conducting the interview, I will stress the confidentially is the most important issue when conducting this interview and will ask them to make me aware that a particular question can not be answered without their confidentially being breached. 3.2.2 Interview Technique and Agenda My intension is to make the interview semi-structured. This will allow me to prepare a set of questions that I will ask all three participants, with the possibly of other questions being prepared depending on the organization. By having a semi-structure interview, it will allow me to get the information that I will require, while allowing any other questions or conversations to happen during the interview, as some topics may come to light during the interview. I shall prepare the questions before the interview takes place and sent the interviewees the prepared question paper and the agenda beforehand. 3.3 Case Studies It will be my intention to focus on two case studies. One will be in the form of concentrating on one of the chosen nuclear sites. I will give information on the suitability of the site, the energy that will generated, the benefits of having this plant and the health and safety implications of having the plant at this location. The form of collecting data will involve the use of journals, construction information, site location, government reports on this site and information coming from interviews. My other case study will focus one of a key renewable project that has been constructed in recent times. I will give information on the characteristics of the site, the e Strategies to Meet Energy Demands in the UK Strategies to Meet Energy Demands in the UK 1.0 Introduction The question of how Britain will be able to meet its energy demand in the next 10 10 years is a matter of concern for the British Government. With aging nuclear plants, replacing these with cleaner and more energy efficiency plants is going to be a challenge. This dissertation aims to investigate the governments proposals to construct a new generation of nuclear plants and rely more on renewable technologies, whilst meeting the energy demand in next 10 20 years and cutting C02 emissions. 1.1 Aims If Government proposals for new nuclear plants and renewable technologies will be able to meet Britains energy demands 1.2 Objectives Is the current proposals the only answer Can they meet their targets of cutting C02 emissions whilst meeting demand Will they be able to construct the nuclear plants on time Have all issues been addressed, such as safety concerns when considering constructing the nuclear plant. Should renewables have a bigger contribution 1.3 Rationale The British Government have been concerned with the gap of meeting the British demand in the next 10 20 years. With aging nuclear plants and questions surrounding what is going replace these, and the commitment of meeting targets to cut C02 emissions. The government has proposed to build a new generation of nuclear power stations and rely more on renewable energy to meet these demands. The conversational decision on this issue has raised further questions on whether this will be enough to make sure Britain does not suffer power black outs in the medium term. Experts in the nuclear sector have also questioned the proposals in terms of are these nuclear plants going to be build on time, who is going to pay for these plants and will the design be right to avoid any health and safety issues. Other plans that the government proposes includes relying more on renewable energy to meet demand. Heavy investment will be needed to meet this target and it remains to seen if this will be enough to meet the demand. 2.0 Literature Review 2.1 World Energy Demands Energy is fundamental in how we all lead our lives. As the years goes by and the higher the world population grows, this means that global demand for energy can only increase. The UN has predicted that as of 2005, 6.5 billion made up the worlds population, and this could grow up to 9.1 billion within 45 years (Asif and Muneer 2007). If the worlds population reaches this figure, then the world is going to face a challenge to meet the energy needs of all of these people, especially with the emerging nations such as China, India and Brazil. 2.2 Energy Usage We use energy in all ways of life and we use them in a number of ways. Areas that energy is used includes Buildings Industry Trasport Buildings Buildings consume over 60% (International Energy Outlook, 2009) of energy produced around the world. Buildings are split into domestic householders and commercial buildings. Domestic buildings usage includes space heating, lighting, air conditioning, ventilation, and general electrical appliances. The volume of the property will determine its final energy consumption. The bigger the property, the more heating and lighting it will need to make it into comfortable surroundings. For residential buildings, the physical size of the structures is one key indicator of the amount of energy used by their occupants (International Energy Outlook) Commercial buildings can include offices and government buildings such as schools and hospitals. Commercial buildings are of a similar nature to domestic buildings, but will be to a much bigger scale. For example, an office could consist of a dozens or even hundreds of computers, compared to maybe one in a domestic house. Industry Industry consumption uses around 29% (International Energy Outlook) of the total energy produced around the world. Industry energy usage includes manufacturing metals, chemicals, materials and agriculture. The industry uses the energy it receives to operate manufacturing assembly lines, processing, space heating and lighting. Transport Transport uses the vast majority of oil that is consumed around the world. Transport energy accounts for cars, trains, planes and lorries. In comparison with the other energy sectors, the transport is largely constricted to oil and cannot operate with the other fuel options. In IEA (International Energy Agency) countries, the transport sector is taking an increasing share of oil demand (Taylor) 2.3 Threats to World Energy Supply As the demand for energy grows, the threat of not producing this energy increases. 2.3.1 Fossil Fuels Fossil fuels currently produce the majority of our energy needs and take many forms. Developed countries use oil, gas and coal and all of this fossil fuel usage heavily contributes to climate change because of the C02 emissions that they produce. Developing countries will use firewood etc and in comparison to the developed countries, the developing countries will produce alot less C02 because of their methods of producing energy. As well as the effects of the fossil fuels, the fuel reserves will decrease as the years and decades go on, particular since the demands for fuels will only rise. The security of getting these fuels is also a concern because of the political divides in the Middle East, where the biggest oil fields are. The political differences between the EU and Russia are also a concern because Russia is biggest exporter to the EU. The energy policies of Britain and France take these threats into account and are putting in place measures to reduce the threat. The threats t hat Britain and France predict is the increasing importation of these fuels, at the same time as demand goes up and the political strains increase. Our increasing reliance on imports of oil and gas in a world where energy demand is rising and energy is becoming more politicised (Meeting the energy challenge, 2007). 2.3.2 Oil Out of all of the fossil fuels, oil is the most precious and scarce. It is the primary source that we use to power our transportation system, to produce energy and used to make many different types of products. The worlds energy demand is expected to grow by 45% in the next 20 years; therefore, the demand for oil is expected to rise by 26% over the same period. Even if we do maintain the optimum amount of oil production over the next 20 years, it is very unlikely that the energy demands will be meet by oil. Oil Prices The issue of the oil peak production and its decline is much debated and opinions vary from a number of sources. One thing that is certain is that oil is not a re-newable fuel and as demands for energy increases year by year, production for oil will increase and this will deplete oil reserves more quickly. The steady growth of spot oil price exploded suddenly in the second halve of 2007: in only twelve months, the price of oil nearly double from $74/barrel on July 2007 to $147.27/barrel on July 2008 (Matutinovic, 2008.) This was a huge hike in a short space of time, caused by the demand from China and India, together with unrest in the Middle East were the main reasons. This increase in price however was short lived and to the present day is back to a manageable price. However, in the future the price will increase and stay there due to a number of factors. Energy demand going up, meaning that supply and demand will be squeezed. The political unrest in unstable regions where the largest oil reserves are As the price of oil increases, so will the price of energy and we this may become uncontrollable over the long term. Security of Oil As mentioned before, the majority of oil reserves are contained within unstable regions or countries and countries that have political issues with the most developed countries. This includes the Middle East, which holds the most of the oil reserves and is almost always unstable. As the developed countries own oil reserves decrease, the importation of oil will increase from these regions and if the regions were to decline further, this may affect security of supply of the energy needs of these countries. The most important implication of such distribution of proven oil reserves is that future oil increasingly dependence on politically instable Middle East (Matutinovic) 2.3.3 Gas In the past natural gas was not used globally to produce energy and by domestic householders. It is becoming increasingly important to meet energy demands around and in particular, the EU region. As with the issues with oil, gas reserves in the European Union and USA regions are dwindling and these regions are fast becoming increasily reliant on Russia and Middle East for their supplies. The UK in particular as a large proportion of its power produced by gas power stations and this has been addressed within their energy policy of the intention to decrease the importation of gas in the long term. However, in the short medium term it is anticipated that Europes dependence on gas will go from 36% up to in 69% (Weisser H, 2005) even with the issue of climate change, as natural gas is less pollutant than coal and oil. Looking at Russia, by far the biggest supplier, for analysing the security of supply equation one has to account for the fact that this countrys energy policy is not only d etermined by economic interest but a least equally by geopolitical, foreign policy and security consideration (Weisser). Political Issues The country with the most natural gas reserves is Russia. As each year goes by, the EU will have to import gas from Russia more and more. The political relationships between Europe and Russia are not the best. This was brought about by the dispute between Russia and the Ukraine over the gas supply. This in turn reduced the supply to Europe, as the pipe goes through the Ukraine to supply Europe. This brought tensions between the EU and Russia, since then Russia has threatened the supply to Europe and dramatic price increases. Apart from the Russia, the Middle East is the second biggest exporter and like oil, is vulrable to political unrest and this may affect supplies to their customers. Gas Prices Gazprom is the biggest gas provider in Russia and world. With demand for gas going to increase in the coming years, this will give the power to increase prices to the EU and other regions. If this were to happen, this would lead to higher costs for the UK to produce power and this would lead to higher power costs for domestic householders. The price of gas will also have to increase to fund investments to find new gas fields and pipes that transport the gas. The main reason for dual gas pricing has been to provide a gas subsidy to the Russian economy. (Spanjer A, 2007) 2.3.4 Coal Coal was the first significant fossil fuel to be used by humans and was the spearhead for the industrial revolution. It is used by both developed and developing due to its availability and value Consumption Developing countries use 55% of the world consumption of coal, which includes China and India. It is predicted that this is going to rise to over 65% in the morelonger term. The availability of coal is vast, which is the primary reason why it is used so much. It is found all over world, including vast reserves in the UK. It is predicted that if the current trend of excavating coal were to continue, it may take up to a few hundred years to exhaust the earths supply. As the coal reserves are spread all over the world, this gives an advantage to the other fossil fuels of providing a greater security of supply. Because of the inevitable decline in world reserves of petroleum and natural gas and rising demand for energy, coal is a major alternative along with nuclear power to meet these meets. (Yilmaz A O, Uslu T, The role of coal in energy production Consumption and sustainable development of Turkey, Energy Policy 35, 1117 1128, page 1, 2007) Cleaner Coal In the future, it is anticipated that cleaner coal power stations are to be constructed as coal is seen as a fuel that will meet the energy demand for the medium term. This is seen as a way of meeting the energy demands because of the reserves of coal offering a much higher security of coal, but also a way to reduce the emissions that coal gives off when used to produce energy. 2.4 Climate Change The issues that are associated with climate change go back over one hundred years when scientists were discovering that greenhouse gases were interfering with the atmosphere. Over the course of history to this present day, the understanding of climate change has jumped dramatically over the past 10 years and scientists are beginning to see the potential effects that may have on the earth if we do not tackle the roots of the problem. 2.4.1 Energy Production Energy production accounts for the vast majority of the green house gases that is produced. Energy accounts for over 80% of the global anthropogenic GHGs (Quadrelli R, The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, IEA, Elsevier, page 2, 2007). These green house gases are a direct result from using fossil fuels in producing energy. The world energy supply is still very much dependant on fossil fuels to produce the energy needs for the world population, even with the growth of renewable energy. As stated before, the worlds energy demand is expected to grow significantly over the next 20 30 years as a direct consequence of a rising world population and the rapid development of China and India. 2.4.2 C02 Emissions All fossil fuels contribute to green house gases, some more than others however. Coal is the biggest contributor of C02 emissions and this will just increase as coal becomes more popular, especially with China and India. An Energy production accounts for the vast majority of the green house gases that is produced. Energy accounts for over 80% of the global anthropogenic GHGs (Quadrelli R, The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, IEA, Elsevier, page 2, 2007). These green house gases are a direct result from using fossil fuels in producing energy. The world energy supply is still very much dependant on fossil fuels to produce the energy needs for the world population, even with the growth of renewable energy. As stated before, the worlds energy demand is expected to grow significantly over the next 20 30 years as a direct consequence of a rising world population and the rapid development of China and India. 2.4.2 C02 Emissions All fossil fuels contribute to green house gases, some more than others however. Coal is the biggest contributor of C02 emissions and this will just increase as coal becomes more popular, especially with China and India. An increase of C02 emissions in the last 35 40 years has been substantial and the total amount of C02 emissions due to burning of fossil fuels reaches to about 26 billion tons. (Saito S, Role of Nuclear Energy to Future Society of Shortage of Energy Resources and Global Warming, Journal of Nuclear Materials, Elsevier, 2009). These countries will have to find a guaranteed supply and this fuel will become cheaper than oil and gas over the longer term. These countries will have to look to coal to meet its energy demands for its growing population. If the projections are correct, coal will become more popular amongst the developed nations. This will increase green house gases and that is with the policy of constructing clean coal power stations. The oil and gas sectors will still have a very important part to play in the long term, but it is projected that dependence on these fuels will decrease slowly as the price goes up and the security of supply is not guaranteed. 2.4.3 Biggest C02 Producers The biggest polluters seem are the countries with the biggest economic development, the rapid development of some countries meaning a higher energy demand and the countries population. The United States was the biggest polluter due to its economic power and industrial size. However, as China has grown rapidly, this has pushed it to become the worlds biggest polluter. This is because China has seen significant economic growth and has required it to increase its energy production to meet its industrial growth. 2.4.4 Affects of Climate Change The affects of climate change will be catastrophic if the current trend of C02 emissions continues. Climate Change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world access to water, food production, health and use of land and the environment (THE STERN REPORT, Executive Summary (Long), page 6, 2006). Rise in sea levels The affect of the earth heating up will mean the two polar ice caps melting, making the global sea levels rising. This will mean that countries or regions with a low altitude could mean land being lost. Global sea rises will mean millions of people being displaced and having to find alternative areas to live. Vegetation areas These areas could change the whole global landscape, in terms of the areas where crops could be grown. This could mean areas where crops are grown just now, will not able to grow in the future and this again may displace millions of people, especially in the more developing regions such as Africa. Weather systems There is current evidence that the weather pattern is already changing. The likelihood of this worsening is very real if climate change is not tackled. This includes an increase in category 5 hurricanes, increased flooding and an increase in heat waves due to temperature rises. Temperature rises will also lead to sever forest fires in regions such as Australia and California. 2.5 Financial Implications of Climate Change As well as the physical implications of climate change, the financial consequences may well be as bad for all countries if climate change is not tackled and heavy investment put in place 2.5.1 STERN REPORT The STERN report was produced to assess the potential damage that climate change could inflict on economies around the world. The evidence shows that ignoring climate change will eventually damage economic growth (THE STERN REPORT, Executive Summary (Long), page 2, 2006). The report consists and focuses on a number of issues The affects of climate change on the economies The costs of putting in control measures to reduce the affects of climate changes The investment needed to change to an infrastructure that omits less C02 emissions The report highlights the relation of GDP in relation to the increase in temperatures. There seems to be a trend in that for every one degree that the temperature goes up, then 1 per cent of GDP is lost. As well as the GDP, the biggest affect that climate change could have on is the developing countries, particular Africa. The report highlights that the ability to grow crops will reduce and water supplies will decrease dramatically and this will displace millions of people. 2.5.2 Investment The STERN report also points out that investment is now needed to prevent much higher costs being incurred in the longer-term. The report comments that such investment should include the acceleration of cleaner and renewable energy. 2.6 Energy Policies Energy policies are produced by governments to help them plan their countries energy production for the long term, set targets for cutting C02 emissions and evaluating their methods of producing energy. 2.6.1 Contents of Energy Policies The contents of energy policies will wholly depend what country it is, how much GDP it produces and how confident they will be in making sure that they can meet their targets Energy Policies will usually contain the following Security of supply Evaluation of their current energy production methods Methods of making sure that they have sufficient ways in meeting demand Outline any new ways in producing their energy Ways in which they will tackle climate change Their policies of using renewable energy to produce power. 2.7 Renewable Energy Policies Renewable energy is essential for meeting the commitment to cut C02 emissions, to ensure the world can meet the energy demands, security of supply and eventually leading to cheaper energy in the long term in comparison with fossil fuel produced energy. Renewable energy technologies have increased dramatically in the last 5 years. Its essential to have renewable energy in a countries energy policy to help meet all these commitments. To the present day, 73 countries are thought to have included a renewable strategy within their policy. Between 2004 and 2008, over $120 billion of investment has put in place to increase the usage of renewables. Although this investment is substantial, it is predicted that that this type of investment will have to be spent every year to help renewables get to a level to produce energy to a stage where it can compete with coal and gas. While most renewable fuels are free, renewable energy projects have high up-front costs (Sawin J L, National Policy Documents, International Conference for Renewable Energies, page 5, 2004). Renewable Energy types include Solar Power Wind Power Hydro Geothermal Biomass Tidal Power 2.7.1 Wind Power Out of all of the renewable technologies, wind power is by far the most used around the world. Wind power was the largest addition to renewable energy capacity (Renewables Global Status Report 2009, REN21, page 11, 2009). Wind power comes in two forms either on shore or off shore. Wind power is particularly used throughout the EU due to its climate. Wind power production percentage throughout the EU varies, with Germany being the most productive country within the EU. 2.7.2 Solar Power At the end of 2007, solar power production accounted for around 0.5% of the power produced. As with the wind power restrictions, solar power is more effective where countries are better situated to get sun on a regular basis. Also as solar power is expensive to build in comparison to the more conventional power stations, this currently makes it unviable to construct until capital costs come down. 2.6.3 Other Renewables The other options of renweables make up a tiny proportion of energy production, in comparison to the wind and solar. Heavy investment is needed to bring these up to level where they will be seen as a potential energy source as the other options. 2.8 Nuclear Energy Nuclear power has is fast becoming one of the main sources of power for a few countries within the EU and the USA. Apart from the Western countries, nuclear power is fast becoming the one of the major sources of producing energy. There over 100 hundred power stations currently being built in Asia and alot more are being planned. Nuclear Power alone wont get us where we need to be, but we wont get there without it. (Abu-Khader M M, Recent Advances in Nuclear Power: A Review, Nuclear Energy 51, 225 233, Elsevier, 2009) 2.8.1 Production Nuclear power currently accounts for around for 14 per cent of the power produced around the world. It is expected that this will grow rapidly over the longer term as the worlds most developed countries construct more plants to meet energy demands. 2.8.2 Why Nuclear Nuclear power has big advantages over the current main sources of power production. Security of Supply Nuclears raw material is more readily available than other fossil fuels. This gives it a more guaranteed security of supply of generating the energy needed. Importing uranium is expensive to import, however it can be stored for several years and makes it less of a concern. Price Rises Nuclear power is less of risk of being the subject to a large price rise. This is because it is cheaper to run the power plant in comparison to gas and coal power stations. 2.14 Bar Chart Showing Predicted Price Rises for Each Fuel Type (Adamantiades A, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Status and Future Prospects, Energy Policy 37 5149 5166, 2009) A doubling in the price of Uranium would cause a 5-6% increase in the total cost of generation, while a similar increase in the price of natural gas would lead to 65% increase in gasfired costs. ((Adamantiades A, Kessides I, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Current Status and Prospects, Energy Policy, Elsevier, page 2, 2009). Climate Change As with renewable energy, nuclear plants produce little or no C02 emissions. As the world is becoming increasily concerned with climate change, severe cuts of C02 emissions are being set and nuclear is seen a key player in reducing these emissions. 2.8.3 Safety Concerns After the tragic accident at Chernobyl, it was understandable that nuclear power got a bad reputation around the world, with some countries even banning it altogether. However, since safety factors in constructing and operating a nuclear plant have improved greatly and the idea of nuclear power is taking off again. During the past two decades, nuclear power plants have also achieved increasingly higher capacity factors with the same or greater levels of safety (Adamantiades A, Kessides I, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Current Status and Prospects, Energy Policy, Elsevier, page 12,2009). 2.15 Bar Chart Showing Fatalities by Fuel Type (Adamantiades A, Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development: Status and Future Prospects, Energy Policy 37 5149 5166, 2009) The most obvious risk of operating a nuclear plan is exposing the public to radiation poisoning, with Chernobyl being the best example. Strict measures are now in place to greatly reduce such a tragedy happening again. This includes conducting risk assessments and putting in control measure to reduce the risks. 2.8.4 Nuclear Waste The debate of nuclear waste was one the biggest obstacles for the new generation nuclear plants being constructed. Although the storage of nuclear is major concern, the technology is in place to manage safely and effectively. In comparison with the waste that fossil fuels produce, it is signifcently less. 3.0 Methodology My method of research was to use a mixture of both quantitative and quantitative research methods. 3.1 Quantitative and Qualitative Research The method of using quantitative is and will be limited, in comparison with the other forms of data collection. This has used up to this point for comparing statistics, figures and forecasts. This is based on using journals, government reports and reliable websites being used to gather this information to allow me to compare the above. It will be my intention to continue this form data collection when completing my dissertation The method of using qualitative will be the form of research that the bulk of dissertation will be based on. This is based on sources from journals, books, government reports, reliable websites, interviews and case studies. It will be my intention to continue with this form data collection when completing my dissertation. Journals This form of gathering data has helped me gather the majority of my information. I have gathered peoples perceptions, thoughts and opinions of this subject. Information gathered was mostly opinions in the form of text, graphs and diagrams. Government Reports This has allowed me to focus on the subjects that I need to concentrate to be able to answer my aims and objectives. Information gathered included factual statistics and text. Websites This form of sourcing of information allowed me to gather some of quantitative and qualitative information. I made sure that these websites were reliable websites and that the information was as accurate. Information gathered included graphs, statistics and text. 3.2 Interviews My intention is to organise three interviews with three different organisations. This is to allow 3 different opinions based on the subject of my dissertation. This will include getting opinions on people who are involved with the nuclear programme, the renewable sector and an organisation that represents somebody/something for which the nuclear plants or the rapid construction of renewables may have negative consequences. 3.2.1 Initial Contact and Organisations My initial contact to arrange interviews was via e-mail. I asked them for an interview by introducing myself, the reason for the interview and the topic of my dissertation. My first contact was Mr David Cameron, of the Scottish Renewables trust. He kindly agreed to an interview in his Glasgow based office and agreed that I would be in touch when I am ready to conduct the interview. My agenda for this interview is to get his views on the developments of the renewables sector, the developments of the nuclear sector and will this be able to meet the energy demand My second contact was Mr Peter Dobson, of Scottish and Southern Energy who are directly involved with the nuclear program within the UK. My contact with him came about because of the close relationship that my employer and SSE have. My agenda for this interview will be similar to my first contact My third contact I hope to be the Scottish Wildlife trust. I have still to make contact with this gruop. My agenda for this interview will be to get the developments on both nuclear and renewables development in the UK and how this could affect the British ecosystem. When it comes to conducting the interview, I will stress the confidentially is the most important issue when conducting this interview and will ask them to make me aware that a particular question can not be answered without their confidentially being breached. 3.2.2 Interview Technique and Agenda My intension is to make the interview semi-structured. This will allow me to prepare a set of questions that I will ask all three participants, with the possibly of other questions being prepared depending on the organization. By having a semi-structure interview, it will allow me to get the information that I will require, while allowing any other questions or conversations to happen during the interview, as some topics may come to light during the interview. I shall prepare the questions before the interview takes place and sent the interviewees the prepared question paper and the agenda beforehand. 3.3 Case Studies It will be my intention to focus on two case studies. One will be in the form of concentrating on one of the chosen nuclear sites. I will give information on the suitability of the site, the energy that will generated, the benefits of having this plant and the health and safety implications of having the plant at this location. The form of collecting data will involve the use of journals, construction information, site location, government reports on this site and information coming from interviews. My other case study will focus one of a key renewable project that has been constructed in recent times. I will give information on the characteristics of the site, the e